Black Friday and Cyber Monday are the most vital days of a year for online retail stores around the world. It is only rarely a success that can be achieved at the last minute or by spending a great deal of money. According to new data, the most successful companies start their strategic planning as early as August, preventing those huge ad spend hikes that come with the fourth quarter. This guide delves into the reasons why the first task is to prepare so to keep your profits in check when your market becomes saturated.
Since there's a 40 percent increase in competition in Meta ads and a 18 percent increase in the price to reach 1000 impressions by November, Answer First Brands should begin preparing for Black Friday in the month of August. Preparing early means that brands can test their creatives before the big holiday season rush, and uncover winning ads as early as possible. In this complete tutorial you will learn about the data from Billo and get a map to test your creative early in order to get the maximum ROI.
Understanding the Data Behind the November Peak
To gain insights into the shifts in the digital advertising landscape, Marketing platform Billo collected the data on the performance of ads on Meta between June and December 2025. The results reveal a sharp increase in costs and competition during the year. Latecomers to the market are in a severe bid to be the best – and they are never going to be.
| Metric Measured | August Levels | November Peak | Percentage Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ad Competition Index | Baseline | Peak | 40 Percent Increase |
| Cost per 1000 Impressions | Standard Rate | Peak Rate | 18 Percent Increase |
| Available Ad Inventory | High | Limited | Significant Decrease |
There is now a 40% increase in competition, so more brands are competing for the same set of consumers. Every view, every click, they become much more expensive in this environment. The cost per 1000 impressions figure was up 18 percent from August through the Black Friday peak. This price increase can quickly wipe out any profit margin of a campaign that has not been optimized early with some testing.
Why August is the Strategic Sweet Spot
Donatas Smailys, co-founder and CEO of Billo, believes that brands tend to see Black Friday as a 4Q issue. This approach results in a collective rush and everyone bidding for the same ad space at the same time. August makes it a much quieter and cheaper playing time for brands. This 'lead time' is vital to have available to enable informed decisions to be made in November.
Brands that make their ads earlier and test them in August see higher results compared to brands waiting until October or November. By November, the brands that tested early will know what works while the brands that waited will be rolling out ads that they have not tested.
August is the ideal time for creators to update them and shoot different types of content. It can provide a feedback loop that enables brands to identify what hooks and calls to action are effective with their target audience. Without this window, brands are really playing with the biggest budgets of the year in guesswork.
The Framework for Testing Creative Early
The key to Black Friday success is getting the right creative that converts, before the ad auction gets too costly. Billo fills the space between brands and creators to create social video ads for platforms such as YouTube and TikTok. They have their own data that indicates a specific pattern for early testing.
Overview of the August Testing Method
While the idea of August testing is not always to create a ton of sales, it's to get the intelligence. You want to know what parts of a video ad keep a viewer engaged in a video, and what parts make them make a purchase decision. These answers can be derived from a smaller budget or even with organic posts.
- To determine 3 to 5 different hooks for each core product which line will break the scroll.
- Work with distinct kinds of creators to determine which persona is the most effective for your audience.
- Test different pain points or solutions to determine what motivates your customers to click during a sale.
Success Tips for Early Content Development
Donatas Smailys says that a big media budget isn't necessary to determine whether an ad is effective or not. Brands should post short variants organically in August and gauge the response from a particular audience within days. So you don't waste thousands of dollars into a crowded auction. The key is to select the right audience for the test, consisting of audience members who already are interested in the product category.
Scaling for the Black Friday Rush
You can enter the scaling phase after you've determined which creative variants are winners in August and September. Ideally, by October you'll have a library of ads that you've tested and have seen work. This can help you budget with confidence since you're not testing. You're just taking a great thing to the next level.
Warning The quickest way to lose money in November is to launch untested creatives. High impression costs mean you're going to have to pay more to know that an ad does not work. To avoid this, make sure everything is ready and in check by late September at the latest.
Implementation Steps for Brands
- Tell your creators in late July or early August so you'll be prepared for testing.
- Test variants naturally, or with minimal budgets, in the last fortnight of August.
- Identify the variants with the highest engagement and conversion rates by analysing the data.
- Give winning ads a facelift and get ready for Nov. high budget campaigns.
Final Methodology and Data Accuracy
The data in this report is based on Billo client Meta ad metrics from June to December 2025. The comparisons are made with the peak months of August 2025 compared to the peak months of November 2025. Cost per 1000 impressions is a composite number that is derived by dividing the total spend by total impressions and finally multiplying by 1000. The information offers an obvious warning to ecommerce brands that want to make their holiday decisions at the last minute.
Beginning in August, brands can be the first to be served a larger percentage of the market spend for the same cost per acquisition. The successful ones are those who make a summer that is competitive for the winter. It's a decision to pay more for less.
